How the BJP made inroads in Bengal

When the BJP West Bengal Unit was using this slogan while campaigning, most of the people were considering this as a utopia and no one took it seriously. However, they have proved that the slogan has some merits as in 2019 they have won 18 seats and if we consider the by-election results as a prelude to 2021 Vidhan Sabha Election then the BJP has bagged 4 seats out of 8. The ruling party won 3 seats and the remaining one has gone to the INC’s kitty. A sudden jump from two seats in 2014 to 18 seats and a spurt in the vote share from 17% to 40.25% in just five years has shocked everyone as the BJP doesn’t have a full-fledged organisation in Bengal even.

The BJP has not only wrested AITC’s 12 seats, but it has also grabbed 2 seats each from the Congress and the CPI (M)’s share. It’s strange to consider that the CPI (M), which ruled Bengal for more than 34 years, has been unsuccessful to even win a single seat. It’s vote share has dwindled from 23% to 6.8%. Analysts say that the Left voters have voted for the BJP as it posed as a strong opposition as compared to the Left or the Congress.

The bye-elections results too have alarmed the ruling party as the BJP has amassed 40.5% vote share whereas the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) has managed to secure 37% only. The ruling party supremo, Ms. Mamata Banerjee, called an urgent meeting to deliberate over factors which has led to her party seats reduced from 34 to 22 seats. The Chief Minister has stated that the BJP has won as they resorted to communal agenda. However, people are of the view that there are several factors which have led to the manifestation of this poll debacle of the AITC.

Analysts are of the view that the polarisation of votes on religious grounds helped the BJP in winning large number of seats.  Rakesh Singh, a former Congress leader, who joined BJP before the elections said “Hindu votes got united and they voted for the BJP whereas the Muslim votes were divided between AITC, CPI (M) and Congress.” Malda Uttar and Malda Dakshin poll results validate this as in Malda Uttar, the Muslim votes got split between Congress and AITC candidate.

Mr. Mukul Roy, former Union Railway Minister, proved his mettle and is being considered the Amit Shah of West Bengal. His booth-management skills and stronghold in the nook and corners of Bengal gave impetus to the BJP. Roy, once a cynosure of Ms. Mamata Banerjee’s eyes and second-in-command of the AITC, joined the BJP after the exposure of Sarada & Narada cases and his alleged involvement.

 “In West Bengal, Mukul Roy is the factor. His booth-management knowledge and skills have worked in the BJP’s favour. Maximum votes of Jangal Mahal transferred to the BJP due to Mukul magic. Since his joining, the BJP’s political performance in the state has improved, “said Poulami Roy, a senior political correspondent in Bengal. However, she also added that the mobilisation support by the RSS also helped the BJP chart this victory. RSS has systematically spread pan-state and filled the gap of the BJP, the ruling party at the centre, despite not having robust organisation in the state.

The Jangal Mahal comprises of the districts of Paschim Medinipur, Purulia, Bankura and Jhargram- all the seats have been won by the BJP.

This victory of BJP is considered more of AITC’s loss as they dug their own grave.

Many consider that Mamata Banerjee is wholly responsible for this poll debacle as her “political opposition cleansing” mechanism has backfired. The violence and harassment meted out to the low-level cadres of the Indian National Congress and especially to the CPI (M) after the AITC gaining power in the state made the Opposition feeble and so gave the BJP a congenial ground to prosper. In addition to this, these cadres sought protection from the BJP by working for it.

Biswanath Chakraborty, Professor of the Rabindra Bharati University and a noted psephologist stated that “Mamata Banerjee’s program of Opposition free politics created a political vacuum in the state which was encashed by the BJP. The cadres of Left and the Congress joined the BJP with a hope of protection.” He added that the Central Leadership of the BJP acted promptly and provided resources and leadership.

Chakraborty also pointed that the conduct of the Panchayat Election, 2018 didn’t go well with the people of all strata in West Bengal and it created an alarming situation. “Voting is a sentimental issue. The conduct of the recent Panchayat election in a manner, where a large number of nominees were not allowed to file their candidature and people were refrained from casting their right to vote, alerted people and created fear among people regarding Ms. Banerjee and her party”.

In 2011, the AITC succeeded in dismantling the CPI (M) after 34 years of unhindered rule. AITC has not been in power for even 10 years and they have encountered this political jolt. Analysts are of the view that the sweeping victory of the BJP is due to the alienation of voters from the AITC. Many are attributing this to the political culture set-up by the ruling party and the change in their working style as well as their ethos.

“Mamata’s style of politics has also not gone well with the electorate. Her usage of words during the poll campaign against the Prime Minister has not been appreciated by the intellectual Bengalis,” observed Mr. Partha Sarathi Guha, journalist working with a daily newspaper in Kolkata.

Others have opined that questioning central government on Pulwama and Balakot attack as well as the Triple Talaq Bill has reduced its popularity.

He also added that the change in the ethos of Mamata Banerjee from anti-dynast to supporting her nephew, Mr. Abhishek Banerjee, is one of the factors which might mar AITC’s popularity. Rumours are rife that the behaviour and political approach of Mr. Banerjee has caused discontentment among veteran leaders. The inactivity of veteran leaders has led to this poll debacle.

Biswanath Chakraborty expressed, “The development and welfare schemes initiated by Mamata Banerjee led to rise in corruption and extortion. AITC cadres extorting money from the beneficiaries or commission in development work created resentment among people from marginalised communities. They voted for the BJP in huge numbers.”

Along with this, journalists who have covered the length and breadth of West Bengal political landscape are of the view that the AITC’s cadre itself has turned out as Achilles heel for Mamata Banerjee.

On conditions of anonymity, many journalists have shared that the AITC cadres have worked hand in gloves with the BJP. Leaders such as Mukul Roy and Arjun Singh left the AITC but their cadres and supporters worked for them by remaining in the AITC. The victory of Arjun Singh from Barrackpore Parliamentary Constituency validated this double game. Despite the AITC having a stronghold in this region, neither it could win the Parliamentary nor the Assembly seats (by-poll elections in Bhatpara). Similarly, despite the BJP not having a strong organisation in the state, Mukul Roy was able to script a history and penetrate each block due to the support of the AITC cadres. Mr. Subhrangshu Roy, two- time Bijpur MLA and son of Mr. Mukul Roy, has been suspended for 6 six years for anti-party activities.

Youth and first-time voters have rallied in favour of the BJP. Lack of employment, corruption in state government recruitments and political violence has disgruntled the youth. The Modi magic has worked among the first- time voters.

Similarly, the blessings received by PM Modi from Boro Maa, Mrs. Binapani Devi- the matriarch of Matua community has led the BJP to win 6 Parliamentary constituencies where the Matuas are around 35-40%. Among her successors, Mr. Santanu Thakur, candidate of the BJP from Bongaon won by defeating her aunt Mamata Bala Thakur, an incumbent and the AITC candidate. It was the endorsement of Mamata Banerjee by Matua matriarch that helped her win in 2011 Assembly Elections. In the past, Matuas have also supported the Left. This shift in allegiance towards the BJP will help it gain stronghold in the upcoming Assembly Elections.

The saffron surge is indicating that Mamata Banerjee’s fortress is no more impregnable. The AITC have to come up with a robust strategy to restrict the exponential growth of the BJP in Bengal, if they want to maintain their political grip.