COVID – 19 growth trends prediction in India for 2020 and beyond

The World’s 2nd most populated & most diverse country stands united in the battle against the Novel Coronavirus epidemic (COVID – 19). The Outbreak, which originated from the Wuhan City of China, is proving as havoc for the entire World. No one ever predicted its devastating effects would spread all over the World. Wealthiest countries, such as the United States of America (U.S.A) with Italy, Spain, the U.K, France, seems helpless and weak while battling against the Coronavirus pandemic. And Unfortunately, India, as a country stood firm against the epidemic at the initial period, is placed on the top 3^rd position in the World.

The Coronavirus pandemic has affected the country’s World over. Still, the measures taken by the Indian Government and its Citizens put it in a relatively better position compared to other Nation’s wealth, infrastructure & health system. Abiding Government advisories such as Social distancing, hygiene & more than a forty days Lockdown has significantly helped Indians to fight against the COVID – 19 & to get prepared in the meanwhile. When India has only 550 cases in a population of over 1.3 Billion, the whole Countrymen went for a 21-day lockdown to prevent the spread of the novel Coronavirus. After that, 19 days’ Lockdown & India still observed a nationwide lockdown.

Outbreak growth prediction in India

Speaking about the economic repercussion of the nationwide Lockdown, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said. However, India may have paid a high industrial price, “but there can be no alternative to saving human lives.” India reported its first case of COVID – 19 with a Student who came from Wuhan City of China in Kerala’s Thrissur district on January 30. By the first week of February, coastal states reported three confirmed cases. And, at the same time, worst affected countries in Asia and West reported their first cases of Coronavirus.

Confirmed Coronavirus cases in Kerala (A Coastal State), India was reported in the first week of February and got Cured and Discharged from by the month-end. Whereas, United States of America declared its first case of COVID – 19 on January 21, almost a week before India. And, the case history of both patients was the same as they both came from Wuhan.

If we look at the data between March 15 to April 30 was used for validation and prediction of the model, and observed a very high rate of spread. As seen in the Statistics, a few notable states in India like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Delhi have been recorded a high number of cases and daily infections. Through, this ongoing infections rate and model is assuming an upper infection upcoming rate and rise with the same capacity. Also, while keeping a track on the trends of these four states, the outburst is supposed to hit even more in the upcoming late 2020 & 2021 onwards. Also, as per this model, the turning point in the new infection cases cannot be predicted in India as cases are still rising. The total number of infections may vary from 17 lacs to 25 lacs by the end of 2020.

The present situation of Outbreak

W.H.O has praised India’s effort and measures taken to fight against the pandemic. Also, 200 American Indian Organizations applaud India’s efforts to fight the epidemic. On March 28, the U.S. Government, through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), announced $2.9 million to support India in its response to the Coronavirus disease, COVID-19. It will undoubtedly help the Indian Government to boost further its capacity to combat the Coronavirus epidemic. If we look at the numbers, total confirmed cases as of July 12 stands at 8,53,211 with 292,908 active claims, 22,718 deaths, and 537,585 recoveries in a country of over 1.3 Billion populations.

Unfortunately, this is an odd race. This is an only race in the World which no one wants to win. But, it’s harrowing to see India going up in the list speedily and stands on the 3^rd position today. It’s a remarkable effort put by India as a developing country and weak Health system. At this point, we must consider what the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) says. Still, we cannot deny the community spread in major Indian cities as most of the cases are not aware of their sources or points of contact where they infected. And, this is one of the significant identity of Community spread.

It has proved India’s real values as India chose to save its people over its economy. On the other side, many developed nations lagged in announcing Lockdown or speculate the situation for the sake of their economy or some other reasons. Thus, India could save the precious lives of its citizens. Central Government and all States government built up their health infrastructure immediately to tackle a large number of daily infections during the Lockdown. That’s helped India widely to hold the situation back and cover it with an outburst. PM Narendra Modi & over 1.3 Billion Indians are committed to protecting India through adopting correct measures, social distancing, and caring for one another. India & the World will undoubtedly win over the Coronavirus outbreak soon.