Mali’s deepening crisis – Strategic viewpoint (Risk report)

WHAT HAS HAPPENED?

•   In recent weeks, Mali’s capital, Bamako, has been rocked by massive demonstrations demanding President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita’s departure.

•     The president was re-elected in 2018 for a second five-year term however has struggled with the deteriorating security crisis and more recently strike by teachers and the COVID-19 pandemic.

•     Spurred by a new opposition alliance led by popular religious leader Mahmoud Dicko, the demonstrations were revived after protests in Apr 2019 against violence and ethnic massacres forced the resignation of the then-prime minister Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga.

BACKGROUND

•     Mali has spiralled into the violence – which involves an amorphous array of al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS) affiliated groups, ethnic militias, and state, regional and international forces – since Tuareg separatists in the north briefly seceded from the southern-based government in 2012. Keita was elected the following year and won a second five-year term in 2018.

•   Thousands of soldiers and civilians have died, and hundreds of thousands have fled their homes amid attacks that have increased fivefold since 2016 and have spilt into neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger.

ASSESSMENT

The sharpening political divide, escalating violence, grinding poverty in Mali are some of the challenges faced by the government and is also worrying the country’s neighbours, who fear further instability could inflame the already volatile situation. It has cast Burkina Faso and Niger into crisis and threatens to reach further south into the coastal West African countries. The continued strengthening of militant groups and their spread to neighbouring countries could allow al-Qaeda and the Islamic State to establish a new haven and destabilize the region further through militancy and terrorism.

The weak economy and lack of job prospects in Mali have led many to turn to the trafficking and smuggling of migrants and drugs as a primary source of income. The crisis is both a humanitarian and security concern as militant groups in the Sahel region often tax trafficking and smuggling routes to fund their campaigns.