Cabo Delgado Province (Mozambique) Country Risk Report

Current Situation in Cabo Delgado Province

• Extremist groups  Al Sunna Wa Jama (ASWJ) locally known as Al Shabab and ISIL affiliated militants have captured a strategic port in the Cabo Delgado province of northern Mozambique.
• Clashes between Extremist groups and Mozambique government in the northern province Cabo Delgado have forced to flee thousands of residents to a coronavirus hotspot. Refugees are likely to exposed to coronavirus in the current situation (ICRC head of operations in Pemba, 2020).
• Thousands of Civilians seek their stay in Pemba, where the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) helped to build a coronavirus treatment centre.
•  Al Shabab or the youth have an ISIS agenda building on the decades of local frustrations, corruption, rigged elections and violence.
• The U.S oil giant – Exxon Mobil is giving $50,000 to help displaced families due to militant attacks in Cabo Delgado province of Mozambique. Exxon Mobil is one of the most prominent investors in the developments of ongoing natural gas projects worth $60 Billion in the region.
• More than 1500 people have been killed, and over 250,000 are homeless since the insurgency began in Cabo Delgado in 2017.
• The government says, it has regained control of the vital port of Mocimboa da Praia, as there have been multiple reports that it had fallen to the Al – Shabab militants. The militants have affiliated links with the Islamic State (IS) group (Tembe, 2020).
• A few significant gases and oil companies such as ExxonMobil and Total have substantial investments in the region but unable to continue their business as there have been militant attacks since years and coronavirus is also a significant problem now.

• A Military source told that a private unit of South African military of the Dick Advisory Group provides air support to the Mozambique force in confronting insurgents. But it could play a minimal role due to Helicopter refuelling stopped in Pemba. Though, he does not understand why towns of Macedonia, Mueda or even Palma were not used for Helicopter refuelling (Official, 2020).
• In August, Al Shabab fighters scaled up their numbers of attacks with their third attempt this year where they could successfully seize the port of Mocimboa da Praia.
• This strategic port is used for deliveries to the $60 Billion worth gas projects located 60km from the north, which is being developed by oil companies such as France’s Total, Exxon Mobil Corp.
• African regional leaders held a virtual summit and discussed the Insecurity in Mozambique’s gas-rich region.
• ASWJ or Al Shabab are fighting for a long time, but most recent attacks have been claimed by the ISIL-  Affiliated Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP).
• The South African Development Council (SADC) is likely to decide on the deployment of foreign troops to assist Mozambique forces in Cabo Delgado.
• Analysts say Mozambique’s military has traditionally been weak. Hence, the country has employed private security services to get help in confronting the militants.
• There is one more small militant group called – RENAMO is active in the central provinces of Mozambique – Sofala, Zembezia and Tete.  Though, RENAMO declared its de-militarization and reintegration into the society of its members. But, still, a breakaway group of militants from RENAMO is likely to continue with their attacks in the central provinces (GARDAWORLD, 2020).
• As far as Al Shabab or IS groups are concerned in Cabo Delgado region, they are still unable to launch attacks on LNG infra (Both onshore and offshore) as there is a strong presence of private security forces and government forces as well to give a cover to the industries.

Internally Displaced People as of May 2020

Assessments

• More than 1500 people have been killed, and over 250,000 people are displaced since the Islamic insurgency started in 2017. If we look at the Cabo Delgado region and observe the situation there, we find that this is a region that has a large youth population and natural gas resources. The area witnessed a transformation over the past few years where new industries are being set up, and robust economic development is taking place. But, the youth find itself disconnected and excluded from the Economic, Social and Political decisions as well. This youth sees the ongoing transformation taking place in the province and region such as Multinationals are coming and massive investment but find themselves left behind. This is where it gives a narrow space to penetrates for extremist groups like Al –Shabab or ISIL.
• Militant groups are pretty aware of the region and how to operate as they have recruited locally people and also pretty understand the region’s culture, language and to some extent religion as well.
• Thus, Al Sunna Wa Jama and IS-affiliated groups operate in the region in a way Boko Haram and Al –Shabab does in Nigeria and Somalia through recruiting locals who are marginalized or rebels in their countries.
• Additionally, Mozambique, a country with full natural gas and resources, has been the main reason for target by the Extremists. The Islamic Extremist groups  Al Sunna Wa Jama (ASWJ) locally known as Al Shabab and ISIL affiliated militants have captured a strategic port in the Cabo Delgado region for being a gateway to large scale Cargo Businesses through Pemba and having worth $60 Billion natural gas resources industry.
• The Mozambique military is not able to fully control the current situation in Cabo Delgado as Militants are continuing with their attacks; people are bound to leave their homes and survive for a livelihood.

• Al Shabab boys and supporting Militants are likely to expand in the region as the Mozambique military is ill-prepared to confront the Militants and sometimes run out of Ammunition as seen recently in Mocimboa de Praia.
• Most affected are the Children who had to displace, followed by women. Food shelter and Nonfood shelter items and livelihood will remain the most needs assistance for Internally Displaced People. However, there have been a large number of settlements and accommodation centres, but their relatives or families host the majority of internally displaced people (IDP’s).
• As an estimation, violence especially around Mocimboa de Praia and Quissanga has caused over 50,000 IDPs between March and May 2020. The IDPs are likely to grow in the upcoming time, and all the needed actions need to be taken as soon as possible.
• Cabo Delgado residents throw their anger over the Government incompetency to save their region and unable to provide them with the needed support. People of Cabo Delgado complain that they are left behind by their government to tackle the situation on their own, and the adequate help has still not been provided by the government.
• If foreign military help is not taken soon by President Filipe Nyusi, then the situation can go out of their hands. Though, the Mozambique defence minister Jaime Besso Neto assure that the condition is under control and Mozambique’s military can tackle it, but this cannot last for a long time now. It has already been over three years since the Militants have taken over the region.
• Neighbouring country South Africa is ready to help Mozambique. South Africa foreign minister Naledi Pandor said on September 2. The South African Development  Council (SADC) had asked Mozambique to provide a roadmap on the assistance Mozambique needed. Suppose it is about Intelligence support, the South African navy patrolling the coast. And, if it for from South African Military, we are ready to help Mozambique. Mozambique is a sovereign country, if they need help, then they will ask for it. South Africa can not jump into Mozambique without any request from the government, Said Minister (Reporting by Alexander Winning, 2020).

• Thus, this illustrates that the SADC and neighbouring countries like South Africa also observe that this crisis may worsen further and have the capacity to destabilize the whole South African region, which may spill over to the neighbouring countries like Tanzania and South Africa anytime.

Recommendations

• It is strictly advised not to travel to these specific areas of Cabo Delgado as these areas are the hotspots for terrorist and most risk-prone area. Nangade, Malcomia, Mecuti, Cidade de Pemba, Quissanga, Palma, Melco, Balama, Mociboa de Praia in Cabo Delgado and most of these are coastal areas.
• There are a few more Travel recommendations for the Cabo Delgado province of Mozambique for Civilians and Businesses.
• Avoid travelling to Roads connecting Mocimboad da Praia and Palma in the Cabo Delgado province due to a threat of abduction or attack. And, do not travel to Northern Districts of Cabo Delgado region.
• Monitor the local media for reports. Also, Avoid the immediate area of Roads mentioned above.
• Also, please review and take care of your security plans.
• The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a Level 3 Travel health notice for Mozambique due to high COVID -19 risk.
• Reconsider travel to some sections of EN1 and EN6 in Sofala and Manica province due to crime. And, reconsider the whole area Cabo Delgado due to terrorism.
• Health Infrastructure in Mozambique is limited, and they’re short of medical equipment and resources with only three doctors per 100,000 people. Frontline health providers are also poorly trained, and medicine shortage is common. Also, there is a notable fact that over 1.2 million people in Mozambique have HIV/AIDS, which represents a sizable population. In the emergency, access to a CCU, ICU or Ventilator is highly unlikely.

• Mozambique is also prone to several natural hazards. The Rainy season often causes flash floods and landslides mainly in Zambezi River and Licungo basins. The rainy season lasts from November to April.
• Cyclone may hit the coastal region. From 2015, the northern and central parts of the country have experienced several flooding and heavy rains, causing dozens of deaths and displacing millions of people. In February 2017, the southern province of Inhambane was hit by a violent cyclone, Dineom which caused severe damage to infrastructure and displaced hundreds of people.
• A high risk of drowning exists on the entire coast Mozambique as there are powerful currents and strong winds. Thus, Swimmers are advised to remain close to shore; beaches are not monitored in Mozambique. And, Shark attacks are rare but possible (GARDAWORLD, 2020).